Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.5 – 134.03

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±11

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 77.52Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 75.67Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 0.31Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560.9 ±9.8

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 50.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 71.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 12.03Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7034, 2374, 9613

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7034, 2374, 9613

Auto

13.0 9%

Teleop

101.8 69%

Endgame

32.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4488, 5937, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4488, 5937, 2635

Auto

27.6 21%

Teleop

82.7 62%

Endgame

22.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.5pts

Blue projected score134pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.5
Score range: 111–177
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 126.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.3Season APEX560.9

13Auto27.6

101.8Teleop82.7

32.5Endgame22.4

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	46
teleop	79	112
endgame	55	45
foul	0	5
total	150	208

Result

Final score

150 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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