Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.31 – 76.72

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.7 ±10.7

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 19.42Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 192.61Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 8.28Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.4 ±12.7

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 17.61Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 7.28Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 51.83Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10444, 1540, 3673

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10444, 1540, 3673

Auto

50.4 23%

Teleop

106.6 50%

Endgame

57.9 27%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5975, 4043, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5975, 4043, 4513

Auto

14.9 21%

Teleop

41.2 57%

Endgame

16.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.3pts

Blue projected score76.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.6
Score range: 55–242
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.7Season APEX203.4

50.4Auto14.9

106.6Teleop41.2

57.9Endgame16.1

58Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	12
teleop	154	77
endgame	73	41
foul	0	0
total	283	130

Result

Final score

283 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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