Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.85 – 106.23

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.5 ±12.2

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 14.94Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 62.54Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 1.37Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.9 ±12.2

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 27.77Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 4.52Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 73.94Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6831, 3663, 9600

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6831, 3663, 9600

Auto

18.3 26%

Teleop

32.2 46%

Endgame

19.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4662, 847, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4662, 847, 2374

Auto

14.0 14%

Teleop

57.6 56%

Endgame

31.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score106.2pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.4
Score range: 56–129
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 126.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.5Season APEX222.9

18.3Auto14

32.2Teleop57.6

19.2Endgame31

49Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	17
teleop	16	70
endgame	8	25
foul	0	10
total	36	122

Result

Final score

36 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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