Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.9 – 30.27

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

364 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 115.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.7 ±10.5

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 79.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 79.79Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 48.29Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.4 ±12.1

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 0.92Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX -4.58Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 33.93Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 1425, 2898

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 1425, 2898

Auto

34.4 18%

Teleop

104.0 54%

Endgame

55.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5970, 9613, 2990

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5970, 9613, 2990

Auto

11.6 50%

Teleop

6.9 30%

Endgame

4.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.9pts

Blue projected score30.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 177.6
Score range: 8–230
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.7Season APEX241.4

34.4Auto11.6

104Teleop6.9

55.7Endgame4.5

0Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	29
teleop	219	52
endgame	77	19
foul	30	5
total	364	105

Result

Final score

364 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 115.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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