Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.02 – 222.81

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±11.6

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 57.51Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 20.84Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 10.67Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.9 ±10.8

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 35.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 8.01Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 179.32Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2471, 10444, 6343

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2471, 10444, 6343

Auto

41.1 49%

Teleop

21.2 25%

Endgame

22.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1595, 5975, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1595, 5975, 1540

Auto

51.8 25%

Teleop

117.0 56%

Endgame

39.3 19%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89pts

Blue projected score222.8pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.8
Score range: 67–245
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.8Season APEX420.9

41.1Auto51.8

21.2Teleop117

22.1Endgame39.3

43Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	66
teleop	30	207
endgame	23	51
foul	0	0
total	70	324

Result

Final score

70 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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