Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
90.29 – 138.09
36%64%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
55 – 18
Prediction missed · off by 77.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±11.6
Season APEX 43Event APEX 5.22Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 68.13Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 16.94Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 99.85Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 17.1Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 21.14Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3574, 3663, 5970
48
/ 100 compatProjected
90.3 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 3574, 3663, 5970
Auto
23.3 29%
Teleop
38.0 48%
Endgame
18.7 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6696, 3636, 5975
57
/ 100 compatProjected
138.1 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 6696, 3636, 5975
Auto
14.2 12%
Teleop
72.2 59%
Endgame
35.4 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.74
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score90.3pts
Blue projected score138.1pts
Red win probability36%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -47.8
- Score range
- 64–164
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
267.6Season APEX331.1
23.3Auto14.2
38Teleop72.2
18.7Endgame35.4
42Consistency15
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 4 |
| teleop | 23 | 5 |
| endgame | 9 | 4 |
| foul | 10 | 5 |
| total | 55 | 18 |
Result
Final score
55 – 18
Prediction missed · off by 77.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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