Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.58 – 44.89

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.1 ±11.6

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 5.26Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 47.13Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -15.81Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263 ±12.8

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -8.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -1.74Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 54.82Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2635, 4513, 3636

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2635, 4513, 3636

Auto

20.9 54%

Teleop

30.0 78%

Endgame

-12.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3024, 2915, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3024, 2915, 4488

Auto

1.8 4%

Teleop

34.2 75%

Endgame

9.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.6pts

Blue projected score44.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.3
Score range: 16–66
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.1Season APEX263

20.9Auto1.8

30Teleop34.2

-12.4Endgame9.7

18Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	7
teleop	74	38
endgame	34	8
foul	5	0
total	126	53

Result

Final score

126 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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