Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.84 – 180.2

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.2 ±11

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 86.9Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 18.15Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 32.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.2 ±11.6

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 94.23Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 65.07Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 20.9Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2374, 6343, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2374, 6343, 9438

Auto

18.3 14%

Teleop

68.1 51%

Endgame

48.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3663, 2990, 4043

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3663, 2990, 4043

Auto

15.7 9%

Teleop

104.6 60%

Endgame

54.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.8pts

Blue projected score180.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.4
Score range: 116–202
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.2Season APEX324.2

18.3Auto15.7

68.1Teleop104.6

48Endgame54.8

19Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	40	28
endgame	28	32
foul	0	0
total	85	70

Result

Final score

85 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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