Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.59 – 111.67

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.3 ±11.6

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 53.54Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 17.64Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 61.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±12.2

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 11.91Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 26.7Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 73.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1595, 9613, 2898

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1595, 9613, 2898

Auto

30.1 24%

Teleop

78.6 62%

Endgame

18.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5975, 3673, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5975, 3673, 7034

Auto

16.6 15%

Teleop

60.5 53%

Endgame

36.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.6pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.9
Score range: 90–155
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.3Season APEX218.2

30.1Auto16.6

78.6Teleop60.5

18Endgame36.7

39Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	12
teleop	28	57
endgame	1	19
foul	5	15
total	40	103

Result

Final score

40 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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