Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 81.16

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151 ±12.1

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 19.1Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -23.46Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX -5.97Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.2 ±11.2

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -26.4Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 49.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 58.46Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10444, 3636, 847

/ 100 compat

Projected

-10.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10444, 3636, 847

Auto

3.2 0%

Teleop

-4.8 38%

Endgame

-11.1 87%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2915, 957, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2915, 957, 6696

Auto

22.6 30%

Teleop

43.8 58%

Endgame

8.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-10.3pts

Blue projected score81.2pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.2
Score range: -22–103
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151Season APEX402.2

3.2Auto22.6

-4.8Teleop43.8

-11.1Endgame8.6

82Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	21
teleop	9	131
endgame	6	52
foul	0	25
total	21	229

Result

Final score

21 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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