Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.18 – 119.8

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.3 ±13.3

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 28.77Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 19.89Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 42.52Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.5 ±11.6

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 46.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 68.26Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 4.77Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6831, 4043, 2550

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6831, 4043, 2550

Auto

29.0 32%

Teleop

28.4 32%

Endgame

32.6 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4513, 4488, 5970

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4513, 4488, 5970

Auto

18.6 15%

Teleop

88.3 73%

Endgame

14.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.2pts

Blue projected score119.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.6
Score range: 69–142
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.3Season APEX340.5

29Auto18.6

28.4Teleop88.3

32.6Endgame14.2

37Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	31
teleop	36	62
endgame	19	19
foul	20	0
total	85	112

Result

Final score

85 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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