Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.23 – 46.39

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.2 ±11

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 97.45Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 32.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 32.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.4 ±11

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX -3.7Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 41.88Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 8.21Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1425, 2635, 9600

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1425, 2635, 9600

Auto

34.9 23%

Teleop

83.0 54%

Endgame

36.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3574, 2471, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3574, 2471, 9438

Auto

19.3 48%

Teleop

-2.2 0%

Endgame

23.0 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.2pts

Blue projected score46.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.8
Score range: 23–185
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.2Season APEX274.4

34.9Auto19.3

83Teleop-2.2

36.4Endgame23

80Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	49
teleop	20	43
endgame	5	10
foul	0	15
total	63	117

Result

Final score

63 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 84.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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