Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.27 – 0

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 7

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645.9 ±9.5

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 51.9Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 145.89Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 34.48Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.4 ±13.3

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -22.04Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 24.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -27.96Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2990, 1540, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2990, 1540, 5937

Auto

42.3 18%

Teleop

147.0 64%

Endgame

41.9 18%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3636, 4662, 3024

/ 100 compat

Projected

-26 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 4662, 3024

Auto

-2.9 13%

Teleop

-13.2 59%

Endgame

-6.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.3pts

Blue projected score-26pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 232.3
Score range: -22–254
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645.9Season APEX150.4

42.3Auto-2.9

147Teleop-13.2

41.9Endgame-6.2

40Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	2
teleop	180	5
endgame	75	0
foul	20	0
total	341	7

Result

Final score

341 – 7

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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