Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.12 – 4.52

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.5 ±11

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 59.44Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 55.34Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 95.34Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.5 ±12.7

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 6.32Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 29.27Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -31.07Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 957, 3673, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 957, 3673, 2374

Auto

28.2 14%

Teleop

111.8 55%

Endgame

62.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9613, 9600, 2915

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9613, 9600, 2915

Auto

7.0 0%

Teleop

6.3 0%

Endgame

-15.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.1pts

Blue projected score4.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 205.6
Score range: -17–232
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.5Season APEX188.5

28.2Auto7

111.8Teleop6.3

62.6Endgame-15.2

60Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	3
teleop	86	7
endgame	44	16
foul	0	5
total	170	31

Result

Final score

170 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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