Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.73 – 273.79

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.5 ±12.1

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 19.27Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 32.22Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 28.24Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.4 ±10.8

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 50.62Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 192.9Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 30.27Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 847, 2898, 4043

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 847, 2898, 4043

Auto

12.7 16%

Teleop

39.6 51%

Endgame

25.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4488, 1540, 2550

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4488, 1540, 2550

Auto

57.2 21%

Teleop

151.6 57%

Endgame

57.5 22%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.7pts

Blue projected score273.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.1
Score range: 54–300
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.5Season APEX478.4

12.7Auto57.2

39.6Teleop151.6

25.2Endgame57.5

20Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	61
teleop	22	158
endgame	16	76
foul	5	5
total	58	300

Result

Final score

58 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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