Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.66 – 195.72

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.5 ±10.5

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 26.28Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 47.89Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 57.49Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.2 ±9.4

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 155.58Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 22.14Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 18Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4043, 5937, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4043, 5937, 2471

Auto

20.4 16%

Teleop

78.3 61%

Endgame

30.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1540, 9438, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 9438, 2635

Auto

34.3 18%

Teleop

100.8 53%

Endgame

55.5 29%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.7pts

Blue projected score195.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.1
Score range: 110–218
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.5Season APEX450.2

20.4Auto34.3

78.3Teleop100.8

30Endgame55.5

48Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	57
teleop	46	114
endgame	25	34
foul	0	15
total	108	220

Result

Final score

108 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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