Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.86 – 52.89

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 51.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±11.6

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 13.29Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 54.68Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX -28.11Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.3 ±12.7

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 33.19Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 11.98Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 7.72Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9600, 7034, 3574

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9600, 7034, 3574

Auto

4.3 12%

Teleop

25.3 70%

Endgame

6.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2550, 3636, 9613

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2550, 3636, 9613

Auto

10.5 20%

Teleop

31.9 59%

Endgame

11.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.9pts

Blue projected score52.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13
Score range: 18–75
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273Season APEX126.3

4.3Auto10.5

25.3Teleop31.9

6.3Endgame11.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	22
teleop	69	7
endgame	34	0
foul	10	5
total	124	34

Result

Final score

124 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 51.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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