Qualification · Qualification 14
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
34.72 – 0
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
124 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.1 ±11
Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 12.13Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 19.4Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 3.19Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.7 ±12.8
Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -13.08Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 3.84Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -9.74Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9438, 1595, 4043
27
/ 100 compatProjected
34.7 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 9438, 1595, 4043
Auto
19.5 59%
Teleop
16.8 50%
Endgame
-3.0 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2915, 2635, 4662
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-19 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 2915, 2635, 4662
Auto
5.3 0%
Teleop
-4.1 29%
Endgame
-15.1 100%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score34.7pts
Blue projected score-19pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 34.7
- Score range
- -22–57
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
205.1Season APEX259.7
19.5Auto5.3
16.8Teleop-4.1
-3Endgame-15.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 5 | 8 |
| teleop | 66 | 8 |
| endgame | 53 | 6 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 124 | 27 |
Result
Final score
124 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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