Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.25 – 125.63

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560 ±9.8

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 84.42Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 24.56Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 100.27Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.8 ±11.1

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 74.99Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 48.04Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 2.6Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2471, 6696, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2471, 6696, 4488

Auto

41.7 21%

Teleop

103.0 52%

Endgame

55.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5937, 3673, 847

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5937, 3673, 847

Auto

22.3 19%

Teleop

69.0 58%

Endgame

27.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.3pts

Blue projected score125.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.6
Score range: 105–230
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560Season APEX332.8

41.7Auto22.3

103Teleop69

55Endgame27.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	8
teleop	75	45
endgame	36	5
foul	10	0
total	153	58

Result

Final score

153 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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