Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.78 – 73.76

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.5 ±11.6

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX -9.43Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX -1.22Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 45.43Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.6 ±12.8

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -13.55Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 33.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 53.49Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2635, 3574, 6343

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2635, 3574, 6343

Auto

9.8 29%

Teleop

11.8 34%

Endgame

12.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4662, 957, 6831

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4662, 957, 6831

Auto

23.5 33%

Teleop

38.7 54%

Endgame

9.9 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.8pts

Blue projected score73.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39
Score range: 13–96
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 120.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.5Season APEX268.6

9.8Auto23.5

11.8Teleop38.7

12.7Endgame9.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	40
teleop	5	29
endgame	16	25
foul	5	0
total	46	94

Result

Final score

46 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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