Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.55 – 183.6

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 60.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±11

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 27.9Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 62.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 49.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±10.4

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 55.45Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 79.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 48.53Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6343, 997, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6343, 997, 7034

Auto

16.1 12%

Teleop

76.2 57%

Endgame

40.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2926, 2521, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2926, 2521, 4125

Auto

33.4 18%

Teleop

96.9 54%

Endgame

50.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.5pts

Blue projected score183.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44
Score range: 114–210
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323Season APEX450.1

16.1Auto33.4

76.2Teleop96.9

40.3Endgame50.3

43Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	41
teleop	139	113
endgame	73	51
foul	0	0
total	239	205

Result

Final score

239 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 60.4 pts

Match videos

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