Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.28 – 153.4

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.5 ±9.5

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 34.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 123.71Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 141.53Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±11

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 32.92Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 66.34Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 54.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5920, 1540, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5920, 1540, 5468

Auto

59.5 20%

Teleop

173.2 59%

Endgame

62.0 21%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6343, 997, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6343, 997, 7034

Auto

16.7 11%

Teleop

89.3 61%

Endgame

40.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score299.3pts

Blue projected score153.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.9
Score range: 128–324
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.5Season APEX323

59.5Auto16.7

173.2Teleop89.3

62Endgame40

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	13
teleop	263	14
endgame	80	41
foul	10	5
total	406	73

Result

Final score

406 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 pts

Match videos

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