Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.81 – 181.47

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.4 ±11

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 21.6Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 42.85Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 30.36Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±10.4

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 54.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 78.52Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 48.07Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6443, 4061, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6443, 4061, 753

Auto

15.2 18%

Teleop

52.7 64%

Endgame

14.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2926, 2521, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2926, 2521, 4125

Auto

29.0 16%

Teleop

95.6 54%

Endgame

53.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.8pts

Blue projected score181.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.7
Score range: 70–206
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.4Season APEX450.1

15.2Auto29

52.7Teleop95.6

14.3Endgame53.3

44Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	56
teleop	59	101
endgame	46	38
foul	15	0
total	143	195

Result

Final score

143 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Match videos

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