Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.92 – 135.15

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±12.7

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 25.83Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 11.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 57.1Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.2 ±11

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 29.08Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 55.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 50.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4692, 1359, 8532

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4692, 1359, 8532

Auto

27.4 31%

Teleop

21.7 24%

Endgame

40.5 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4043, 9430, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4043, 9430, 2374

Auto

28.4 21%

Teleop

66.9 50%

Endgame

39.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score135.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.2
Score range: 70–160
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.3Season APEX332.2

27.4Auto28.4

21.7Teleop66.9

40.5Endgame39.6

49Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	37
teleop	40	59
endgame	37	36
foul	20	0
total	117	132

Result

Final score

117 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Match videos

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