Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.87 – 138.77

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±11

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 29.54Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 63.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 51.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.2 ±11

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 30.06Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 56.49Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 52.22Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6343, 997, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6343, 997, 7034

Auto

16.5 12%

Teleop

83.2 60%

Endgame

38.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4043, 9430, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4043, 9430, 2374

Auto

27.1 20%

Teleop

74.4 54%

Endgame

36.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.9pts

Blue projected score138.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.1
Score range: 114–169
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 137.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323Season APEX332.2

16.5Auto27.1

83.2Teleop74.4

38.3Endgame36.9

41Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	36
teleop	121	47
endgame	52	55
foul	15	0
total	210	138

Result

Final score

210 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Match videos

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