Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.73 – 108.98

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.8 ±9.5

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX -2.46Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 123.64Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 140.55Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±12.7

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 29.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 17.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 61.67Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3712, 1540, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3712, 1540, 5468

Auto

60.7 24%

Teleop

145.0 57%

Endgame

49.1 19%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4692, 1359, 8532

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4692, 1359, 8532

Auto

28.3 28%

Teleop

27.1 26%

Endgame

47.1 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score261.7pts

Blue projected score109pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.8
Score range: 84–287
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.8Season APEX188.3

60.7Auto28.3

145Teleop27.1

49.1Endgame47.1

45Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	27
teleop	136	14
endgame	72	18
foul	5	0
total	289	59

Result

Final score

289 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Match videos

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