Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.28 – 49.73

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 55.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.8 ±12.2

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 31.14Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 24.57Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 14.57Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 634 ±8.8

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 6.86Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 24.57Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 18.3Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4125, 3673, 9567

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4125, 3673, 9567

Auto

19.2 28%

Teleop

32.9 49%

Endgame

15.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9438, 955, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9438, 955, 9023

Auto

16.1 33%

Teleop

20.9 43%

Endgame

11.3 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.3pts

Blue projected score49.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.6
Score range: 30–90
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.8Season APEX634

19.2Auto16.1

32.9Teleop20.9

15.4Endgame11.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	25
teleop	19	72
endgame	3	22
foul	0	0
total	29	119

Result

Final score

29 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 55.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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