Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.94 – 190.03

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.4 ±11.2

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 6.16Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 124.17Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 76.61Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.6 ±9.8

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 108.58Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 46.88Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 34.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2733, 846, 2521

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2733, 846, 2521

Auto

44.9 23%

Teleop

105.0 53%

Endgame

47.8 24%

Strengths

· 846 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 955, 4061, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

190 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 955, 4061, 753

Auto

34.1 19%

Teleop

123.5 67%

Endgame

26.1 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.9pts

Blue projected score190pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.9
Score range: 166–231
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.4Season APEX557.6

44.9Auto34.1

105Teleop123.5

47.8Endgame26.1

46Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	57
teleop	80	28
endgame	46	45
foul	10	15
total	181	145

Result

Final score

181 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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