Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.33 – 153.06

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.8 ±10.8

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 8.14Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 18.29Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 9.9Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.1 ±11

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 62.52Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 56.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 34.21Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2811, 3024, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2811, 3024, 9438

Auto

21.5 74%

Teleop

5.2 18%

Endgame

2.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9430, 2374, 4692

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9430, 2374, 4692

Auto

35.8 24%

Teleop

71.8 47%

Endgame

44.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.3pts

Blue projected score153.1pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.7
Score range: 12–177
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 135.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.8Season APEX313.1

21.5Auto35.8

5.2Teleop71.8

2.5Endgame44.7

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	37
teleop	33	25
endgame	13	47
foul	0	5
total	62	114

Result

Final score

62 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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