Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.93 – 31.58

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 81.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.1 ±10.7

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 7.89Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 40.7Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 129.34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.3 ±12.2

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX -1.03Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 32.72Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX -0.11Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6845, 4043, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6845, 4043, 1540

Auto

30.9 17%

Teleop

114.0 64%

Endgame

34.3 19%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3673, 753, 2733

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3673, 753, 2733

Auto

-1.2 0%

Teleop

20.2 77%

Endgame

7.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.9pts

Blue projected score31.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.4
Score range: 7–203
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.1Season APEX271.3

30.9Auto-1.2

114Teleop20.2

34.3Endgame7.2

3Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	10
teleop	36	62
endgame	28	9
foul	0	0
total	65	81

Result

Final score

65 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 81.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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