Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.71 – 138.55

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 77.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 618.9 ±9.8

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 103.35Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 116.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 66.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.2 ±10

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 70.58Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 23.12Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 44.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3674, 955, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3674, 955, 997

Auto

50.6 18%

Teleop

171.0 59%

Endgame

66.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9023, 6343, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 6343, 7034

Auto

11.4 8%

Teleop

88.5 66%

Endgame

34.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score286.7pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.2
Score range: 115–311
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618.9Season APEX453.2

50.6Auto11.4

171Teleop88.5

66.1Endgame34.4

66Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	8
teleop	107	115
endgame	56	48
foul	0	25
total	189	196

Result

Final score

189 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 77.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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