Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.51 – 38.34

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

27 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.5 ±12.7

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 19.88Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 39.75Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 23.88Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.9 ±11.6

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 33.49Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 9.65Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX -4.8Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6465, 749, 6443

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6465, 749, 6443

Auto

12.5 16%

Teleop

41.7 55%

Endgame

21.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4060, 9438, 3712

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4060, 9438, 3712

Auto

21.6 62%

Teleop

10.0 29%

Endgame

3.0 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.5pts

Blue projected score38.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.2
Score range: 13–109
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 54 vs event baseline 137.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.5Season APEX137.9

12.5Auto21.6

41.7Teleop10

21.9Endgame3

10Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	13	1
endgame	1	11
foul	0	0
total	27	27

Result

Final score

27 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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