Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.14 – 231.76

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412 ±9.8

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 60.99Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 78.84Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 27.31Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.8 ±11.2

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 24.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 138.21Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 69.38Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2374, 2521, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2374, 2521, 10991

Auto

31.1 19%

Teleop

91.1 57%

Endgame

38.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1359, 5468, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1359, 5468, 9430

Auto

58.5 26%

Teleop

107.2 48%

Endgame

59.3 26%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.1pts

Blue projected score231.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.6
Score range: 142–257
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 137.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412Season APEX535.8

31.1Auto58.5

91.1Teleop107.2

38.1Endgame59.3

10Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	25
teleop	41	64
endgame	43	28
foul	0	15
total	111	132

Result

Final score

111 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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