Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.17 – 206.43

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.4 ±11

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 79.05Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 100.75Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 33.37Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.2 ±9.8

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 136.49Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 5.76Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 64.18Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2521, 3674, 4060

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2521, 3674, 4060

Auto

35.8 17%

Teleop

113.3 54%

Endgame

62.4 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 9438, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5468, 9438, 997

Auto

39.3 19%

Teleop

119.0 59%

Endgame

43.6 22%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.2pts

Blue projected score206.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.7
Score range: 182–237
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.4Season APEX500.2

35.8Auto39.3

113.3Teleop119

62.4Endgame43.6

36Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	60
teleop	129	111
endgame	52	43
foul	5	15
total	220	229

Result

Final score

220 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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