Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.55 – 60.65

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 96 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.4 ±11.2

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 42.3Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 16.01Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 122.24Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.5 ±10

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX -8.36Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 41.63Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 27.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 753, 3024, 846

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 753, 3024, 846

Auto

32.9 19%

Teleop

91.3 52%

Endgame

50.3 29%

Strengths

· 846 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 8532, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2811, 8532, 4125

Auto

22.1 41%

Teleop

16.4 30%

Endgame

15.6 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.6pts

Blue projected score60.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.9
Score range: 37–205
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 134.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.4Season APEX420.5

32.9Auto22.1

91.3Teleop16.4

50.3Endgame15.6

32Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	53
teleop	78	86
endgame	0	59
foul	5	0
total	126	198

Result

Final score

126 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 96 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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