Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.58 – 55.96

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±12.1

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 33.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 29.48Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 21.36Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±11.7

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 22.4Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 27.4Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 6.16Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5920, 6443, 6343

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5920, 6443, 6343

Auto

11.3 15%

Teleop

57.6 75%

Endgame

7.5 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1359, 10991, 6845

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1359, 10991, 6845

Auto

21.8 39%

Teleop

20.2 36%

Endgame

14.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.6pts

Blue projected score56pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.6
Score range: 32–109
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.8Season APEX276.5

11.3Auto21.8

57.6Teleop20.2

7.5Endgame14

39Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	3
teleop	18	26
endgame	7	33
foul	5	15
total	42	77

Result

Final score

42 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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