Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.66 – 212.77

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±12.8

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 21.23Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 28.88Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 84.55Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 629.7 ±9.5

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 129.66Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 24.34Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 58.77Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3024, 1359, 2521

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3024, 1359, 2521

Auto

41.0 32%

Teleop

46.6 36%

Endgame

41.2 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 4060, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5468, 4060, 9023

Auto

37.0 17%

Teleop

121.6 57%

Endgame

54.4 26%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.7pts

Blue projected score212.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.1
Score range: 111–237
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 131.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.4Season APEX629.7

41Auto37

46.6Teleop121.6

41.2Endgame54.4

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	41
teleop	25	198
endgame	45	55
foul	5	10
total	97	304

Result

Final score

97 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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