Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.48 – 76.02

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.6 ±11

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 66.17Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 0.4Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 58.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.8 ±11

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 44.05Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 34.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -2.21Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2926, 3712, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2926, 3712, 2374

Auto

25.5 21%

Teleop

65.0 52%

Endgame

33.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8532, 753, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8532, 753, 9438

Auto

16.4 21%

Teleop

34.7 45%

Endgame

25.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.5pts

Blue projected score76pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.5
Score range: 52–149
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 132.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.6Season APEX267.8

25.5Auto16.4

65Teleop34.7

33.6Endgame25.7

54Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	23
teleop	21	54
endgame	10	10
foul	5	20
total	59	107

Result

Final score

59 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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