Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.45 – 85

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.4 ±9.5

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 117.25Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 6.29Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 23.91Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.1 ±12.7

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 31.18Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 23.15Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 30.67Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 3673, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 955, 3673, 2811

Auto

37.2 26%

Teleop

72.5 51%

Endgame

32.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9567, 6443, 4060

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9567, 6443, 4060

Auto

15.1 20%

Teleop

45.7 59%

Endgame

16.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.5pts

Blue projected score85pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.4
Score range: 58–174
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.4Season APEX168.1

37.2Auto15.1

72.5Teleop45.7

32.7Endgame16.2

49Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	10
teleop	42	22
endgame	13	19
foul	5	0
total	86	51

Result

Final score

86 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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