Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.85 – 37.91

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.6 ±11.4

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 27.84Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 18.85Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX -15.84Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.8 ±11.1

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 7.88Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 31.28Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX -1.25Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 749, 847, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 749, 847, 2811

Auto

6.0 33%

Teleop

9.4 52%

Endgame

2.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6465, 10991, 3673

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6465, 10991, 3673

Auto

9.0 23%

Teleop

11.1 29%

Endgame

18.2 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.9pts

Blue projected score37.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.1
Score range: 7–62
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.6Season APEX241.8

6Auto9

9.4Teleop11.1

2.8Endgame18.2

0Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	12
teleop	57	11
endgame	18	10
foul	0	10
total	101	43

Result

Final score

101 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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