Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.4 – 154.95

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.9 ±12.1

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX -1.45Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 11.53Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 19.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.4 ±12.2

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 13.32Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 35.75Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 105.88Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3712, 6845, 4692

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3712, 6845, 4692

Auto

11.5 42%

Teleop

5.7 21%

Endgame

9.9 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9567, 4043, 3674

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9567, 4043, 3674

Auto

19.5 13%

Teleop

83.4 56%

Endgame

47.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.4pts

Blue projected score155pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.5
Score range: 5–179
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 132.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.9Season APEX292.4

11.5Auto19.5

5.7Teleop83.4

9.9Endgame47

65Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	13	137
endgame	14	24
foul	0	0
total	45	182

Result

Final score

45 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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