Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.37 – 97.3

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.6 ±10.4

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 13.11Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 26.79Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 62.47Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.9 ±12.4

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 33.51Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 28.34Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 35.45Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4125, 753, 2926

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4125, 753, 2926

Auto

13.8 13%

Teleop

65.5 63%

Endgame

24.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 749, 3024, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 749, 3024, 10991

Auto

27.5 30%

Teleop

40.4 45%

Endgame

22.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score97.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.1
Score range: 73–126
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 132.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.6Season APEX268.9

13.8Auto27.5

65.5Teleop40.4

24.4Endgame22.5

34Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	22
teleop	91	30
endgame	74	9
foul	0	0
total	168	61

Result

Final score

168 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 51 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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