Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.91 – 91.99

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.9 ±11

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 7.1Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 57.55Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 36.26Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.9 ±12.2

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 25.87Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 1.19Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 64.93Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 847, 997, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 847, 997, 7034

Auto

7.0 8%

Teleop

61.8 66%

Endgame

24.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6443, 2733, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6443, 2733, 2374

Auto

11.0 12%

Teleop

66.9 74%

Endgame

12.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.9pts

Blue projected score92pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.9
Score range: 68–125
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 132.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.9Season APEX263.9

7Auto11

61.8Teleop66.9

24.2Endgame12.7

37Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	10
teleop	130	30
endgame	65	6
foul	0	25
total	203	71

Result

Final score

203 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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