Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.93 – 206.83

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576 ±8.2

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 100.1Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX -28.83Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 77.66Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.3 ±9.5

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 65.79Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 12.38Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 128.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 2811, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 2811, 9430

Auto

38.1 28%

Teleop

74.1 54%

Endgame

25.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9023, 6465, 846

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 6465, 846

Auto

29.5 14%

Teleop

116.9 57%

Endgame

59.3 29%

Strengths

· 846 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.9pts

Blue projected score206.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.9
Score range: 126–230
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 130.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576Season APEX516.3

38.1Auto29.5

74.1Teleop116.9

25.3Endgame59.3

53Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	50
teleop	133	83
endgame	64	61
foul	0	0
total	263	194

Result

Final score

263 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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