Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.21 – 49.48

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 91.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.8 ±10.5

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 25.33Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 120.34Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 6.54Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.4 ±12.1

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX -4.28Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 34.8Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 18.96Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5920, 5468, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5920, 5468, 4061

Auto

35.5 24%

Teleop

88.0 60%

Endgame

23.1 16%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3673, 8532, 4060

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3673, 8532, 4060

Auto

13.4 26%

Teleop

13.0 25%

Endgame

24.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.2pts

Blue projected score49.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.7
Score range: 26–175
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 128.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.8Season APEX147.4

35.5Auto13.4

88Teleop13

23.1Endgame24.8

43Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	36
teleop	196	22
endgame	48	31
foul	0	0
total	296	89

Result

Final score

296 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 91.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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