Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.64 – 87.89

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.9 ±11.4

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 89.62Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 26.92Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 11.1Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217 ±12.7

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 26.95Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 3.64Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 57.3Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 847, 1359

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 847, 1359

Auto

19.1 16%

Teleop

65.3 53%

Endgame

38.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4692, 2733, 8532

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4692, 2733, 8532

Auto

22.3 27%

Teleop

32.0 39%

Endgame

27.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.6pts

Blue projected score87.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.8
Score range: 61–155
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.9Season APEX217

19.1Auto22.3

65.3Teleop32

38.1Endgame27.9

32Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	8
teleop	27	9
endgame	22	21
foul	0	0
total	70	38

Result

Final score

70 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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