Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.53 – 210.9

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.3 ±11.7

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 21.87Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 20.73Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 104.93Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.8 ±10

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 16.03Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 112.19Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 82.68Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9567, 8532, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9567, 8532, 955

Auto

30.5 22%

Teleop

70.6 51%

Endgame

38.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5920, 1540, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5920, 1540, 2374

Auto

47.3 23%

Teleop

127.4 61%

Endgame

35.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.5pts

Blue projected score210.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.4
Score range: 126–233
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 124.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.3Season APEX440.8

30.5Auto47.3

70.6Teleop127.4

38.2Endgame35.4

57Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	44
teleop	52	128
endgame	28	35
foul	0	0
total	138	207

Result

Final score

138 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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