Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.04 – 43.84

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.7 ±11.2

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 89.55Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 87.28Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 33.21Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.3 ±12.7

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 37.4Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX -0.26Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 6.7Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5468, 2521, 749

/ 100 compat

Projected

210 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5468, 2521, 749

Auto

48.4 24%

Teleop

99.5 49%

Endgame

53.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3024, 3673, 6845

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3024, 3673, 6845

Auto

17.9 46%

Teleop

15.0 39%

Endgame

5.7 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210pts

Blue projected score43.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.2
Score range: 22–232
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.7Season APEX90.3

48.4Auto17.9

99.5Teleop15

53.8Endgame5.7

90Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	13
teleop	156	5
endgame	66	2
foul	15	0
total	287	20

Result

Final score

287 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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