Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.17 – 87.07

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.7 ±11.6

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 24.88Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 15.74Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 87.55Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.3 ±10.8

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 31.55Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX -3.82Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 59.34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4692, 847, 3674

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4692, 847, 3674

Auto

19.9 16%

Teleop

57.9 47%

Endgame

44.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1359, 2811, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1359, 2811, 753

Auto

15.7 20%

Teleop

40.5 52%

Endgame

21.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.2pts

Blue projected score87.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.1
Score range: 64–151
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.7Season APEX367.3

19.9Auto15.7

57.9Teleop40.5

44.7Endgame21.6

64Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	8
teleop	79	0
endgame	49	7
foul	5	0
total	160	15

Result

Final score

160 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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