Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.53 – 290

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.1 ±11

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 96.92Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 31.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 38.52Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 600.3 ±10.2

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 145.02Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 126.12Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 18.86Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3674, 753, 5920

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3674, 753, 5920

Auto

16.4 10%

Teleop

105.9 64%

Endgame

43.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 1540, 3024

/ 100 compat

Projected

290 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5468, 1540, 3024

Auto

59.8 21%

Teleop

163.0 58%

Endgame

59.3 21%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.5pts

Blue projected score290pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.5
Score range: 140–317
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.1Season APEX600.3

16.4Auto59.8

105.9Teleop163

43.1Endgame59.3

70Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	76
teleop	74	157
endgame	29	57
foul	0	0
total	125	290

Result

Final score

125 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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